New population projections for Dane County anticipate faster growth than earlier state projections suggest. The Regional Data Group (RDG), a coalition of local planning and demography specialists, projects the county will reach 887,000 residents by 2050—more than 325,000 above the 2020 Census count of 561,504, and over 100,000 higher than the Wisconsin Department of Administration’s (DOA) projections issued in January 2025.
The difference comes down to methodology. The DOA’s estimate relies on data about age group population shifts and assumes the state’s population will decline overall. The RDG projection considers a broader range of data and local insight into housing and job trends, resulting in a higher forecast—16.5% growth per decade through 2050, compared to DOA’s 11.5%.
The RDG projections go beyond countywide totals, with forecasts for towns, villages and cities. In many cases, these community-level estimates differ from DOA’s because they draw on local growth patterns and land available for development.
Alongside population, the group also examined housing needs: by 2050, Dane County will need about 160,000 additional housing units to keep up with demand—on top of the current shortage. From 2010 to 2020, 8,000 fewer housing units were built than the number of new households, tightening vacancy rates and underscoring the urgency to build.
“Reliable, local data is essential for effective planning, especially as communities plan for housing, infrastructure, and other needs. These projections are a tool to help local leaders across the county plan responsibly for growth while protecting the quality of life their residents value.” — Jason Valerius, Executive Director of the Capital Area Regional Planning Commission.
The Regional Data Group plans to update its projections every five years to ensure they remain relevant and useful for local planning.
For more information, including population projections by community, see the fact sheet on CARPC’s website.
About the Regional Data Group (RDG): The Regional Data Group includes staff from the Capital Area Regional Planning Commission, the Greater Madison Metropolitan Planning Organization (MPO), Dane County Planning & Development, the City of Madison, and the University of Wisconsin–Madison Department of Planning and Landscape Architecture.
