Last month, the Census Bureau proposed significant changes to its data and collection procedures for the 2030 Decennial Census. The proposed changes would affect who is included in the apportionment count, how residency is determined, and what demographic information is collected.
Because Census data is used to determine political representation, funding formulas, and plans for public infrastructure and services, these changes could have far-reaching effects on our communities for decades to come.
Public comments on the proposed rule are due Monday, November 2.
What Changes Are Proposed & Why Do They Matter?
Who Would Be Counted
The apportionment count would only include citizens and Green Card holders. International students, work-visa holders, refugees, asylees, and other residents would not be included in that count, which determines how seats in the U.S. House of Representatives are distributed among states.
Excluding residents based on their legal status would change the population estimate used to apportion congressional representation. The counts would no longer reflect everyone who lives in a community and depends on its infrastructure, services, and facilities.
How Residency Would Be Determined
Historically, residency has been determined based on where someone lives and sleeps most of the time. Under the proposed change, residency would be determined based on where someone spends the most time between January 3 and April 1 of the Census year and use income tax records to verify their residence.
This is particularly relevant to Dane County’s college communities. Students who use their parents’ address on tax records could be counted in the community they’re from rather than where they live while attending school.
Redefining the residency period and using tax records to verify residence also raises questions about how other groups would be counted, including:
- Lower-income and seasonal workers
- Older adults with limited income
- People with disabilities
- “Snowbirds” who spend the winter in warmer states
- People moving homes or changing jobs
- Children in foster care
- People in emergency shelters
In addition to complicating the residency determination, counting people in locations other than where they usually live could create a mismatch between population figures and the number of people actually using a community’s infrastructure, services, and facilities. All levels of government, service providers, and community groups need accurate information about their communities to plan for those needs.
What Information the Census Bureau Would Be Allowed to Collect
The proposed rule would prohibit questions about race, ethnicity, and sexual orientation.
Race and ethnicity questions have been on the Census for over 200 years, allowing us to measure demographic changes over time. Prohibiting these questions would limit the data available to identify disparities and assess community needs.
Implications for Future Censuses and Other Surveys
The proposed changes are significant enough that they would make it difficult to accurately compare 2030 Census data with past Census data, limiting our ability to track changes over time.
The Decennial Census also provides an important benchmark for many other public and private surveys, including the Census Bureau’s American Community Survey (ACS) and the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Current Population Survey. If Census data becomes less reliable, the reliability of other surveys that use it as a benchmark will also decline.
Changes like this are typically a matter of agency policy and are reviewed and reissued before each Census. This proposed rule would write the residence criteria into the Code of Federal Regulations, making them binding on future censuses beyond 2030. The comment period is unusually short for such a significant regulatory action, and the proposal to prohibit specific questions is unprecedented.
How Can I Learn More or Comment?
Accurate Census data is important because governments need to know who lives in their communities, where residents live, and whether public systems and investments are serving all people equitably.
CARPC is submitting comments on these proposed changes. Others interested in the proposal can review the full notice and submit comments through the original federal register notice or via Regulations.gov now through Monday, November 2.
